Kalshi vs Polymarket: Volume, Revenue and Valuation (November 2026)

Kalshi is the bigger of the two prediction markets. Kalshi traded $98.2 billion in contracts in October 2026, about 81% of the volume across the eight US prediction market exchanges tracked by DeFi Rate.

Kalshi was valued at $40 billion after a $1 billion funding round in October 2026. Polymarket was valued at $21 billion in a funding round reported in August 2026.

Kalshi was on track for about $4 billion in annual revenue as of August 2026, according to a person familiar with the figures, as reported by The Paypers. In October 2026, Kalshi said its non-sports annualized revenue had passed $1 billion.

Polymarket and Kalshi have exploded in popularity in the US. The peer-to-peer “bet on anything” platforms are each processing billions of dollars every week, with markets ranging from sports to politics (and everything in between).

Riding a national moment of gambling deregulation and Gen Z retail investor culture, the exchanges straddle the line between betting and trading. The allure of monetizing perceived crowd-beating expertise or insight has drawn in millions of users.

But this rapid growth has not been without controversy. The proliferation of novel markets has led to accusations of insider trading, exacerbated by the relative anonymity granted by Polymarket’s crypto-based system. And governments are still trying to get to grips with the implications of both platforms at the state and federal level.

In this article, we'll compare Kalshi and Polymarket by volume, valuation, revenue and owners, explain how they work and whether they're legal, and look at what the numbers mean for investors.

Top Kalshi vs Polymarket Statistics

• Kalshi traded $98.2 billion in October 2026, up 61% from September (DeFi Rate, November 2026)
• Kalshi made up about 81% of the volume on the eight US prediction market exchanges tracked by DeFi Rate in October 2026 (DeFi Rate, November 2026)
• Kalshi was valued at $40 billion after its Series G in October 2026, up from $2 billion in June 2025 (Kalshi, October 2026; Decrypt, June 2025)
• Polymarket was valued at $21 billion in a $1 billion round reported in August 2026 (Bloomberg, August 2026)
• Kalshi was on track for about $4 billion in annual revenue as of August 2026, according to a person familiar with the figures (The Paypers, September 2026)
• More than 30 million Kalshi accounts had been created as of October 2026 (Kalshi, October 2026)
• Sports made up 78.3% of Kalshi's volume and 82.4% of Polymarket's in July 2026 (Pew Research Center, September 2026)
• Searches for "Kalshi" grew 293% from September 2025 to September 2026 (Exploding Topics, October 2026)

Is Kalshi or Polymarket Bigger?

Kalshi is much bigger than Polymarket by trading volume. Kalshi traded $98.2 billion in October 2026, compared with $14.8 billion on Polymarket US, according to DeFi Rate. Polymarket's international exchange traded $5.2 billion in the 30 days to November 2, 2026, according to DeFi Rate's volume tracker.

Kalshi's lead has grown through 2026. Kalshi's share of Kalshi and Polymarket's combined volume rose from 65.5% in May 2026 to 75.7% in July 2026, based on data from The Block analyzed by the Pew Research Center.

Here's a breakdown of Kalshi and Polymarket's monthly trading volume:

Month	Kalshi Volume	Polymarket Volume (Both Exchanges)	Kalshi Share
May 2026	$16.8 billion	$8.8 billion	65.5%
June 2026	$33.0 billion	$14.7 billion	69.1%
July 2026	$40.1 billion	$12.9 billion	75.7%

Volume kept climbing in the fall. The US prediction market exchanges tracked by DeFi Rate traded $120.7 billion in October 2026, up 64% from September, according to DeFi Rate. Kalshi's busiest day of the month was October 24, 2026, when it traded $5.30 billion, DeFi Rate said.

Here's a breakdown of trading volume in September and October 2026, according to DeFi Rate:

Exchange	September 2026	October 2026	Change
Kalshi	$60.85 billion	$98.15 billion	+61.3%
Polymarket US	$8.70 billion	$14.77 billion	+69.8%
All eight US exchanges tracked	$73.58 billion	$120.73 billion	+64.1%

Both exchanges count each contract at its $1 face value, whatever price the trader paid, so the volume figures are larger than the money that changes hands. Kalshi also launched perpetual futures in May 2026, according to Kalshi. The Wall Street Journal reported that the CFTC was examining trades on Kalshi's ether perpetual futures, CNBC said in September 2026. Both companies deny wash trading.

How Many People Use Kalshi and Polymarket?

More than 30 million Kalshi accounts had been created as of October 2026, according to Kalshi. That figure counts accounts opened, not active users. TIME reported in April 2026 that Kalshi had more than 5 million users, and Kalshi added 3 million new users during the 2026 World Cup, the company told CNBC.

Polymarket gets more website visits, because it has more users outside the US. Polymarket.com had 43.31 million visits in June 2026, compared with 14.62 million for Kalshi.com, according to Semrush Traffic Analytics.

Here's a breakdown of Kalshi and Polymarket's website traffic:

Website	Visits (June 2025)	Visits (June 2026)	Change	Top Country (June 2026)
kalshi.com	848,401	14.62 million	+1,623.1%	US (83.43%)
polymarket.com	7.55 million	43.31 million	+473.7%	US (20.86%)

Figures above are for June 2025 and June 2026.

The typical Polymarket trader makes small bets. In a sample of nearly 12,000 active Polymarket accounts, the average trade was $6.50, according to the Pew Research Center.

For the latest monthly figures, use Exploding Topics' free website traffic checker for kalshi.com.

How Much Are Kalshi and Polymarket Worth?

Kalshi was valued at $40 billion after a $1 billion Series G round in October 2026. Polymarket was valued at $21 billion in a $1 billion round reported in August 2026.

Kalshi's valuation rose twentyfold in 16 months, from $2 billion in June 2025, as reported by Decrypt, to $40 billion in October 2026, according to Kalshi.

Here's a breakdown of Kalshi's funding rounds:

Date	Round	Amount Raised	Valuation
June 2025	Series C	$185 million	$2 billion
October 2025	Series D	$300 million	$5 billion
December 2025	Series E	$1 billion	$11 billion
May 2026	Series F	$1 billion	$22 billion
October 2026	Series G	$1 billion	$40 billion

Kalshi's Series G was co-led by Wellington and Sequoia, with investors including Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue, Baillie Gifford, CapitalG and Morgan Stanley Investment Management, according to Kalshi. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told CNBC in June 2026 that the company was considering going public, but not before 2027, CNBC reported.

Polymarket's valuation also jumped after the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to $2 billion in October 2025, according to ICE.

Here's a breakdown of Polymarket's funding rounds:

Date	Round	Amount Raised	Valuation
2025	Round led by Founders Fund	$150 million	$1.2 billion
October 2025	Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) investment	Up to $2 billion	~$8 billion (before the investment)
March 2026	ICE follow-on investment	$600 million	Not disclosed
April 2026	New round (reported)	~$400 million	~$15 billion
August 2026	Round led by 1789 Capital (reported)	$1 billion	$21 billion

Polymarket was in talks to raise about $400 million at a valuation of about $15 billion in April 2026, according to PYMNTS. The August 2026 round was led by 1789 Capital, a spokesperson for the firm told CoinDesk. Polymarket hasn't announced that the round has closed.

For investors, Kalshi is now valued at nearly twice as much as Polymarket. It also handles nearly five times as much volume as Polymarket's two exchanges combined: $97.3 billion compared with $20.2 billion in the 30 days to November 2, 2026, based on DeFi Rate data. Polymarket's valuation may reflect its international reach and its backing from ICE.

How Much Revenue Do Kalshi and Polymarket Make?

Kalshi appears to make far more revenue than Polymarket. Kalshi was on track for about $4 billion in annual revenue as of August 2026, while Polymarket was at about $1 billion a year in June 2026, according to an estimate by Sacra.

Neither company publishes its revenue. Kalshi's run rate of about $4 billion comes from a person familiar with the figures, and its gross margin of about 90% comes from documents viewed by Bloomberg, as reported by The Paypers.

Here's a breakdown of Kalshi and Polymarket's revenue:

Measure	Kalshi	Polymarket
Annualized revenue (latest)	~$4 billion (August 2026, reported)	~$1 billion (June 2026, Sacra estimate)
Non-sports annualized revenue	Over $1 billion (October 2026, Kalshi)	Not disclosed
2025 fee revenue	$263.5 million (InGame estimate)	~$0 (no trading fees on most markets)
How it charges	Trading fees; prediction markets charge a blended fee of about 1% of volume	Taker fees only, since 2026

Polymarket only started charging trading fees in 2026. It didn't charge fees on most markets on its international exchange in 2025, according to Sacra. Polymarket now charges takers (traders who accept an existing price), but not makers, according to its fee guide.

Prediction markets like Kalshi charge a blended fee of roughly 1% of trading volume, according to Kalshi.

Who Owns Kalshi and Polymarket?

Kalshi is owned by its two cofounders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, and its venture capital investors. Polymarket is owned by its founder, Shayne Coplan, and investors including the Intercontinental Exchange.

Mansour and Lopes Lara each own about 12% of Kalshi, according to Forbes estimates. Coplan owns about 11% of Polymarket, Forbes estimates.

Here's a breakdown of who owns Kalshi and Polymarket:

Company	Founders	Notable Investors
Kalshi	Tarek Mansour (CEO) and Luana Lopes Lara	Sequoia, Wellington, Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue
Polymarket	Shayne Coplan (CEO)	Intercontinental Exchange, Founders Fund, 1789 Capital

Donald Trump Jr. is a partner at 1789 Capital, which led Polymarket's latest round, and he advises both companies, according to CoinDesk.

What Are Kalshi and Polymarket?

Kalshi and Polymarket are exchanges. They do not take bets in the traditional sense and do not describe themselves as bookmakers.

Instead, they facilitate the trading of “event contracts”: all-or-nothing derivatives offering a fixed payout if the specified event happens within the predefined period.

On a practical note, this means that contracts are only available when there is sufficient liquidity in the market: bettors essentially take bets against each other.

To that end, both Polymarket and Kalshi have incentive schemes that reward users for providing liquidity to the market. That’s one of four main ways to try and make money on the exchanges:

Betting

Gambling is the main appeal of Kalshi and Polymarket. Users attempt to turn a profit by correctly predicting yes/no markets, with higher upside when going against the crowd. For example, for an event with an implied probability of 70%, you could purchase a “no” contract for $0.30.

Sports betting is especially popular. But unlike traditional sportsbooks such as BetMGM, bettors on Polymarket and Kalshi are betting against each other as opposed to “the house”.

Hedging

Individuals or companies can use the exchanges to reduce their exposure to risks. An example provided by Kalshi is a businessman who stands to lose $10,000 if an income tax proposal becomes law: by buying 10,000 “yes” contracts at $0.50, he limits his loss to $5,000 regardless of whether or not the proposal passes.

Arbitrage

Arbitrage seeks to deliver guaranteed small wins by exploiting market inefficiencies to take both sides of the same wager where the combined implied probabilities create a guaranteed profit. There are various circumstances where this may be possible:

• Placing the bets at different times: this still comes with some risk, as the initial wager is effectively a bet on the implied probabilities changing.
• Placing the bets with different platforms: when implied probability is in the region of 50%, slight differences between Kalshi and Polymarket (or a more traditional bookmaker) can produce guaranteed wins from the outset.
• Trading two different markets: Sometimes, closely related markets on the same platform will allow the user to cover both the yes and no outcomes profitably.

Market-making

Few traders will use this as their main strategy, but it is possible to try and maximize liquidity incentives via a high turnover of event contracts and a willingness to take either/both sides of a wager. These market makers support the platforms by minimizing supply and demand issues, effectively serving as micro-bookmakers.

Why Are Kalshi and Polymarket Growing So Fast?

Both Kalshi and Polymarket have become hugely popular, and sports drive most of the activity.

Sports made up 78.3% of Kalshi's volume and 82.4% of Polymarket's in July 2026, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. The 2026 World Cup, which ran from June 11 to July 19, added to the sports share in June and July.

Here's a breakdown of the share of trading volume that came from sports:

Exchange	May 2026	June 2026	July 2026
Kalshi	77.2%	80.6%	78.3%
Polymarket	56.9%	77.2%	82.4%

But some of the biggest publicity surrounding the exchanges has come from other, alternative markets. Politics betting is particularly popular, with more than $2 billion in bets on the 2024 presidential election on Polymarket alone by the week before Election Day (and that was at a time when the platform was not even accessible in the US).

There are also markets for weather (there was an investigation in France following alleged tampering with a temperature sensor by a Polymarket user), tech, culture, and “mentions” (will X say Y in a given speech/publication).

Aside from the deregulation, Polymarket and Kalshi are experiencing growth right now because these types of market resonate with the “meme stocks” and speculative investing culture of Gen Z.

Social media has demystified and proliferated investing, but also placed a spotlight on riskier approaches, all while young people are constantly fed hard-to-attain lifestyles. Chasing quick wins is more tempting than ever.

According to a Northwestern Mutual survey reported by CNBC, 80% of Gen Z (and 75% of millennials) who are interested in prediction markets, sports betting, crypto, options or meme stocks say it is because they feel financially behind. They view these instruments as possible shortcuts to their financial goals.

At the same time, there is an unprecedented degree of anxiety about the future, and many young people cope by adopting a layer of detachment from serious issues.

Reducing significant global events down to fun guessing games with a chance to make money is symptomatic of this increasing “doomerism”.

Are Kalshi and Polymarket Legal?

It is legal to use Kalshi in the US. Polymarket has a US-specific version that is also legal to use, although the primary platform is geo-restricted.

There is a long-term trend toward greater tolerance of gambling in the US. In 2018, the Supreme Court struck down the federal ban on sports betting. In 2024, a district court ruling paved the way for election betting.

However, Polymarket and Kalshi are in a regulatory gray area. They are simultaneously potentially subject to federal trading platform rules and state-level gambling regulations, although in practice they may sometimes slip through the gaps between the two.

At the state level, Kalshi and Polymarket faced more than two dozen lawsuits alleging that they are unlicensed sports gambling operations, NPR reported in April 2026.

Most US states have now legalized sports betting, but it remains closely regulated, and some people feel as though these exchanges are side-stepping important safeguards. After all, sports make up most of the trading on both exchanges.

Meanwhile, from a federal perspective, Polymarket only got the CFTC’s approval for its US exchange in November 2025, having previously been banned by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for operating an unregistered derivatives trading platform. Kalshi, for its part, is registered with and regulated by the CFTC.

The regulatory struggles have been felt beyond just the US. Spain blocked access to both Polymarket and Kalshi in May 2026 while it investigated whether they were in breach of national law by operating without a gambling license.

The legal fight has moved to the appeals courts. In September 2026, the Sixth Circuit ruled that Ohio and Tennessee can apply their gambling laws to Kalshi's sports contracts, CNBC reported. The Ninth Circuit made a similar ruling for Nevada in August 2026.

Some states have gone further. On October 28, 2026, Utah filed criminal charges against Kalshi and its cofounders, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, for allegedly breaking the state's gambling ban, according to NBC News. Kalshi called the charges “crazy overreach.”

The federal regulator is backing the exchanges. In August 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) used emergency powers to order Kalshi to keep operating in New York after the state sued, according to CoinDesk. In October 2026, the CFTC proposed a rule that would define event contracts on sports, politics and other events as swaps, which it regulates.

More countries have also acted. France ordered internet providers to block Polymarket in July 2026, according to France 24.

There’s also controversy around certain political markets, especially those most closely associated with Gen Z “doomerism.” Amid escalating US/Iran tensions, some Kalshi users were treating “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?” as a de facto assassination market. After Khamenei’s death, Kalshi reimbursed all fees, settled earlier positions at the last traded price and refunded later ones, according to The Block. Some users have since sued.

Further complicating the picture, Polymarket is based in Panama, placing controversial markets outside of Washington’s jurisdiction. In theory, making those markets available in the US could constitute regulatory or criminal breaches, but there is an ongoing question of who bears the responsibility when individuals bypass regional restrictions using VPNs.

One thing that remains unquestionably illegal is using Kalshi or Polymarket for insider trading. But the proliferation of niche markets, and the increased anonymity of (in Polymarket’s case) a crypto-based system, vastly increase the risks compared to traditional bookmakers. A US soldier has pleaded not guilty to charges that he used classified information to bet on the removal of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. His trial is tentatively set for December 2026.

In May 2026, Google engineer Michele Spagnuolo was arrested, and brought before a federal New York judge on charges of breaking insider trading laws by placing a series of Polymarket bets related to the company. He made $1.2 million on the platform, allegedly using confidential but internally-available marketing material to rack up huge wins. His biggest profits came on markets predicting who would be the most Googled person in 2025.

What’s the Difference Between Kalshi and Polymarket?

While Kalshi and Polymarket are undoubtedly part of the same trend, there are some important differences.

Polymarket’s original, international platform is a true decentralized exchange. It is crypto-native, accepting only USDC (a stablecoin tethered 1:1 to the US dollar), and contracts are executed on the blockchain.

Kalshi, on the other hand, has a centralized order book, and accepts US dollars.

Where things get complicated is that Polymarket’s international exchange is inaccessible in the US. To get national approval, they acquired a pre-existing CFTC-registered exchange. So the US-only version is not blockchain-native and is functionally similar to Kalshi.

Polymarket US launched with sports markets, but it now handles more volume than the international exchange. Polymarket US traded $15.0 billion in the 30 days to November 2, 2026, compared with $5.2 billion on the international exchange, according to DeFi Rate. Polymarket's international exchange is still the original, crypto-based version of the platform, accessible outside the US or via VPN.

Kalshi likes to emphasize its regulated credentials compared to Polymarket. The Coalition for Prediction Markets, which includes Kalshi but not Polymarket, ran a full-page ad in the Washington Post in January 2026:

Kalshi also hosts far more trading overall. Kalshi made up about 83% of Kalshi and Polymarket's combined volume in the 30 days to November 2, 2026, based on DeFi Rate data.

Can You Use Kalshi and Polymarket for Investments?

The received wisdom when it comes to gambling is that the house always wins. With Kalshi and Polymarket, there is no “house” in the usual sense because you are betting against other individuals.

That means there is no in-built disadvantage to try and overcome (although there are still trading fees to factor in). A typical sportsbook effectively “charges” for every bet placed by rounding up or down from the true estimated probabilities, whereas odds on exchanges are entirely controlled by user activity.

Betting against individuals as opposed to massively data-backed bookmakers also means that sites like Kalshi and Polymarket theoretically present more inefficiencies to be exploited. Bookies will very rarely set “bad” odds that shift the statistical advantage to the bettor—and when they do, they typically have a sea of terms and conditions that may allow them to avoid paying out.

In other words, Kalshi and Polymarket offer a potentially more viable investment strategy than betting against the house. And they provide a route to hedging other, more traditional investments.

Even so, the vast majority of people are using Polymarket and Kalshi to gamble, which is not a reliable investment strategy. A study of Polymarket trading by finance researchers Akey, Grégoire, Harvie and Martineau found that 70.8% of users lost money overall, as reported by InGame. The top 1% of traders captured 84% of all gains. A later version of the study, covering $67 billion of trades, found the top 1% of profitable users captured 76.5% of profits, according to its CEPR summary.

That’s partly because automated, high-frequency trading bots play an outsized role on the platform. Most ordinary people are therefore entering into contracts with bigger players who have access to better data, much like they would be on a sportsbook.

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With many newer investors becoming more patient, the same people who were drawn in by meme stocks and prediction contracts are beginning to look for more data-driven, long-term bets. A good trend intelligence platform is an invaluable resource for serious investors.

What Does Search Data Say About Kalshi?

Exploding Topics data shows that searches for "Kalshi" grew 293% between September 2025 and September 2026, from 310,169 to 1.22 million a month.

Searches peaked at 2.07 million in July 2026, during the World Cup. Over two years, searches are up 490%, from 206,779 in October 2024.

Here's a breakdown of monthly searches for "Kalshi", according to Exploding Topics:

Search Term	October 2024	September 2025	Peak	September 2026	Change Since September 2025
Kalshi	206,779	310,169	2.07 million (July 2026)	1.22 million	+293%

For investors, search interest is an early sign of which consumer platforms are winning attention, often before funding rounds and revenue figures are public.

Find the Trend Behind the Trend

You should now know more about the rapid rise of Kalshi and Polymarket, and the forces that are driving the growth. It might seem as if the two platforms came out of nowhere, but they actually tell us an awful lot about wider US cultural shifts.

Whether you’re an investor, businessperson, or SEO specialist, it pays to stay on top of trends. The Exploding Topics blog is a great place to start for more deep dives like this one.

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Not only that, but our weekly newsletter exclusively for Pro subscribers features hand-curated breakdowns, focused specifically on early-stage, high-growth products and startups.

How We Compiled These Statistics

We used company announcements, investor press releases and named reports for valuations and funding. Revenue figures are estimates or anonymously sourced reports, labeled as such. Trading volume comes from DeFi Rate and from The Block's data as analyzed by the Pew Research Center; both count contracts at their $1 face value. Website visits come from Semrush Traffic Analytics, and search volumes come from Exploding Topics. Figures are as of November 3, 2026.

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